Diamonds in the Dirt. Up 15% While the Sector Lost 15%

Happy Tuesday, GoldBuzzers!

This week I heard from a subscriber who’s seen his precious metals portfolio grow by over a million dollars since last year - split across physical gold, silver, and mining stocks. His question was simple: with miners so beaten down, does it make sense to rotate some of his gold gains into the sector?

It's the right question to be asking right now, and in today's Take Action Tuesday I want to take a closer look at what's actually happening inside the recent selloff.

Ok. Let’s get to it. ⬇️

Gold drifted lower toward $5,000 on Monday as a pullback in crude oil gave the dollar some breathing room and took pressure off Treasury yields. The catalyst: Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that Iranian tankers are now being allowed through the Strait of Hormuz, which dragged WTI back toward $95 and helped global equities stage a modest recovery.

That's a meaningful shift from last week's panic, when Brent was pushing hard above $100 and gold briefly spiked past $5,100 before reversing. But don't mistake calm for resolved - the Iran conflict is now in its third week and looking far from finding a resolution.

The Fed decision on Wednesday is the next big test, with 95.6% of the market expecting rates to hold at 3.50-3.75%. Silver, meanwhile, oscillated around $80, caught between easing energy fears and a projected 67-million-ounce supply deficit that keeps a bid under the metal. The gold-silver ratio widened to 62.3, a sign silver is feeling the industrial-demand jitters more acutely than gold right now. All eyes on tomorrow.

Since late January, the precious metals mining sector has been a difficult place to be. Across the more than 230 mining companies tracked by the GoldBuzz Insider system, the average mining stock has fallen nearly 15%, with the median even worse at -16.6%. More than 80% of the universe is in the red. If you've been watching your portfolio, it hasn't felt good.

But look closer, and a more interesting story emerges. Thirteen miners (twelve of them gold miners) have gained more than 15% during this same period. One has more than doubled. Another 21 are up a smaller amount, or level. The divergence isn't random, and understanding it tells you something important about where the real opportunity in this sector actually sits.

Silver: The Beta That Cut Both Ways

The most striking split in the data is the gold-versus-silver divide. Gold peaked at $5,602 per ounce on January 29 before pulling back roughly 9% to the $5,000 range. Silver's correction from its own record was far more severe - dropping more than 30% from its highs to trade near $80 per ounce.

That maps almost perfectly onto our miner data. Gold stocks averaged a decline of 11.6%. Silver stocks fared much worse - averaging a loss of nearly 25%. The Juniors sector - the most speculative tier of the stack - is showing an average decline of only 9.4% for Gold juniors. Silver juniors? Down nearly 26%.

Silver's deeper losses reflect its well-documented relationship with gold - the two metals are deeply connected, but silver amplifies moves in both directions due to the much smaller size of its market. When sentiment shifted sharply in late January, silver-focused miners saw declines of 20-25% or more while gold names suffered but recovered more quickly. Silver's industrial component, usually a tailwind, offered no cushion in a risk-off flight. That's a feature of the asset class, not a flaw - but it matters for how you size positions and when you hold them.

What the Winners Had in Common

The more interesting question is what separated the thirteen companies that rose 15% from the 197 that fell.

The answer isn't sector exposure alone, though being in gold obviously helped. The answer is catalysts - company-specific, fundamental developments that caused individual stocks to re-rate regardless of what the rest of the sector was doing. Look at the top performers and a clear pattern emerges: permitting milestones, construction progress, and strategic capital from credible backers.

Belo Sun Mining (+98%) delivered the clearest example. Its flagship Volta Grande Gold Project in Brazil had carried a suspended installation licence since 2017 - nine years of regulatory limbo that kept a significant asset in mothballs. On February 14, a Federal Regional Court judge granted interim relief fully restoring the Installation Licence, authorising Belo Sun to resume construction activities.

That single ruling, combined with a $30 million strategic private placement led by La Mancha Investments - one of the sector's most respected institutional players - transformed the company's risk profile almost overnight. The stock hit a new 52-week high within weeks.

Cabral Gold (CBR.V, +64%) stacked two catalysts in quick succession. Phase 1 heap-leach construction at Cuiú Cuiú in Brazil is 54% complete, on track for commercial production in Q4 2026, with 71% of costs already committed. Then on March 10, the Pará State Environmental Council issued the Licença Prévia for the Full Mining Licence - described by the CEO as the most critical, time-consuming and challenging permit to secure - unlocking not only Phase 1 expansion but the path to a much larger Phase 2 hard-rock operation.

Unigold (UGD.V, +108%) saw parallel momentum in the Dominican Republic. The Ministry of Environment confirmed it had completed its project review and scheduled a site visit - the final step before delivering the Terms of Reference for an environmental impact assessment. A private placement in which insiders subscribed for 7 of the 8.2 million units on offer said everything about internal conviction.

Montage Gold (+18%), with a market cap now above $5 billion, represents the higher end of the development spectrum. Its Koné project in Côte d'Ivoire is advancing toward a first gold pour in late Q4 2026, and the stock reached an all-time high on February 27 when sector sentiment briefly peaked. Even through the subsequent pullback, it has held positive returns - which is what fully-funded, construction-stage projects tend to do when gold is above $5,000.

The Signal Inside the Noise

What these companies share - across three countries, at various stages of development - is momentum that exists independently of the gold price. Permitting wins don't reverse when gold falls $500 from its high. Construction milestones don't expire. Serious institutional investors don't pull capital because sentiment shifted for six weeks.

This is precisely the kind of differentiation the Insider scoring and ranking system is built to identify. It's also the logic behind a model portfolio we'll be introducing to subscribers soon - a rules-based, systematic approach we've been deliberately holding back until entry conditions look right. A correction that has pushed the average miner down 15% while leaving select names up 50% or more is a reasonable illustration of why that discipline is so important.

The January highs were extended. That matters because in this sector, short-term price action is almost entirely a sentiment story, not a fundamentals one. The macro case for gold and miners can be airtight and a 15% drawdown still arrives on schedule. The lesson isn't to doubt the thesis. It's to expect the turbulence - and to be prepared for it to last longer than feels comfortable.

But a look at where many of these 238 companies are trading today is also a reminder of what a brutal few weeks can create. In previous precious metals bull markets, stocks at these price levels have been the foundation of returns measured in multiples rather than percentages. When confidence returns to the sector - and history suggests it always does - it tends to lift the entire complex.

If thirteen companies can rise 15% or more while the average miner falls 15%, imagine what they can do when the wind is at their backs.

That’s all for this Tuesday, folks. See you on Thursday.

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Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com