Welcome back, GoldBuzzers!

Gold gave back most of its ceasefire rally yesterday, silver did a full round trip, and the Fed Minutes confirmed that policymakers are just as confused as the rest of us.

Today we're breaking down what actually happened, why the market faded, and what the next two weeks look like for metals.

Ok, let’s get into it. 👇

Gold gave back most of its early gains on Wednesday but still closed in positive territory around $4,730, while silver held up about 1% over $74. The big headline was the US-Iran two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan - the Strait of Hormuz reopens, US military strikes pause, and oil prices dropped hard on the news. That pulled the dollar lower and took bond yields with it, which gave both metals a lift.

But it wasn't a straight line up. Profit-taking kicked in as equities rallied on the risk-on mood, and reports of localized airstrikes in the region reminded everyone this truce is held together with duct tape. The FOMC minutes from March didn't help settle nerves either - policymakers flagged that a prolonged Middle East conflict could keep inflation sticky enough to force more rate hikes, though they still penciled in one cut for the year.

Gold has now fallen roughly $900 from its January all-time high above $5,600, and silver is down nearly 20% since the Iran conflict started on February 28th. The ceasefire is a start, but two weeks is a blink of an eye in that part of the world. Until the bond market picks a direction, metals are stuck reacting to whichever headline lands next.

Gold and silver traders woke up to fireworks on Wednesday. By close, the fireworks had fizzled.

Within hours of President Trump announcing a two-week ceasefire with Iran - brokered partly through Pakistan's PM and tied to the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz - precious metals ripped higher. Gold spiked 3.1% intraday, briefly topping $4,850. Silver rocketed nearly 7% to three-week highs above $77.

Then the selling started. By late afternoon, gold had slid back to $4,723. Silver gave up most of its gains to trade around $74.25. What looked like a breakout turned into a round trip.

Oil told the same story in reverse. Brent crude cratered more than 15%, falling below $100 for the first time since the conflict began in late February. The dollar sold off. Rate-cut odds that had been buried for months crept back into the conversation. All three tailwinds hit precious metals at once in the morning - and none of them were enough to hold by the close.

Why the full giveback?

Because this truce has more conditions than a subprime mortgage.

Iran submitted a ten-point proposal that includes demands the U.S. has already rejected - full sanctions relief, withdrawal of combat forces from regional bases, compensation payments, and continued uranium enrichment.

Foreign Minister Araghchi signaled that safe passage through the Strait would require ongoing coordination with Iran's armed forces. Lebanon was excluded from the pause entirely, meaning proxy conflicts could flare at any moment. Iranian missile alerts continued sounding in the region even after the announcement.

The market's verdict was clear. Traders don't believe this deal holds. The morning spike was a reflex. The afternoon fade was the real opinion.

What the charts say

Gold's close near $4,723 is disappointing after touching $4,850 earlier. The 21-day moving average sits around $4,738, and gold failed to hold above it. That said, the $4,700 area has acted as support several times over the past week. A break below that level would open up a retest of the recent lows near $4,100.

Silver's round trip was even more brutal. A 7% gain shrinking to roughly 3% tells you that buyers above $76 ran out of conviction fast. Support sits near $72, with resistance now confirmed at $77-$78.

What to watch over the next two weeks

The ceasefire buys time for negotiations in Islamabad starting April 10. But it does not resolve the underlying standoff over Hormuz, nuclear concerns, or proxy militias. Iran's ten-point proposal reads more like an opening wish list than a serious framework. Any headline suggesting the pause is breaking down could send both metals sharply higher. But Wednesday showed that ceasefire optimism alone isn't enough to sustain a rally.

The Fed Minutes dropped yesterday afternoon and confirmed the divide. Most policymakers saw upside risks to inflation from the Middle East conflict, and options markets now price a roughly 30% chance of a rate hike through early next year. If the ceasefire holds and oil stays below $100, that pressure eases. If it doesn't, rate cuts are off the table for a long time.

J.P. Morgan still expects gold to average near $5,000 later in 2026. Goldman has a $5,400 target. The structural bull case - central bank buying, ETF inflows, Western investors rotating out of overvalued equities - has not changed. But Wednesday was a reminder that the path higher won't be a straight line.

What this means for stackers

Wednesday's action was a gift if you read it correctly. The morning spike rewarded anyone who'd been adding on dips. The afternoon fade punished anyone who chased.

If you own physical metal, none of this changes your plan. Days like Wednesday are why you don't try to time headlines. Use dips to add. Keep cash ready for the next shock. Spread your holdings across gold for stability and silver for leverage to the upside.

This ceasefire could hold, collapse, or drag on in limbo for weeks. The only certainty is that the next surprise is already forming.

That’s all for this Thursday, folks. I’ll see you on Sunday.

Before you go, please take a moment to rate today’s newsletter and let us know how we did.

Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com