Happy Tuesday, GoldBuzzers!

While everyone's still catching their breath from yesterday's fireworks - gold smashing through $5K, silver going vertical and then getting smacked right back down - I want to zoom out from the ticker and focus on something that doesn't get nearly enough attention: what's actually happening behind the counter.

In today’s Take Action Tuesday, I’m talking with Andrew Sleigh again, because the leading indicators in these markets are delivery times, mint allocations, and the conversations dealers are having with their suppliers.

Let’s get into it. ⬇️

Monday Market Madness: Gold Finally Smashes Through $5,000, Silver's Wild Ride Continues

Gold didn't just break $5,000 - it blew right through it, touching an all-time high of $5,110 before falling back to $5,011. The catalyst? Pick your favorite chaos: President Trump threatening 100% tariffs on Canada if they cozy up to China, PM Mark Carney insisting that Ottawa doesn’t actually have any plans for a Beijing free trade deal, ongoing Greenland drama with Europe, Middle East tensions, and - oh yeah - Senate Democrats threatening a government shutdown over the Minneapolis shooting aftermath.

Meanwhile, silver went absolutely bananas, spiking nearly 15% before profit-takers stepped in and dragged it back under $104. That's still triple-digit silver, folks - a sentence that would've gotten you laughed out of the room two years ago (except in our house!) The physical market remains tight as a drum, with Chinese manufacturers reportedly pivoting from jewelry to kilo bars just to keep up with demand.

And let’s spare a thought for Goldman Sachs today, who just had to part ways with their Head of Precious Metals trading. One can only imagine the losses!

As I’ve been saying for a while, extreme volatility is going to be the new normal, and it’s going to take a lot of recent market entrants by surprise!

All eyes now turn to this week's Fed meeting (rates expected to stay put) and whether Trump actually picks a new Fed Chair - because a dovish replacement would throw even more rocket fuel on this rally. Gold's still up over 10% on the month - Silver's up almost 35% and it’s still January. 🥇🚀

The response to my recent interview with Andrew Sleigh was phenomenal, and if you haven’t read it yet, I urge you to do so.

Andrew’s been in the industry for over 30 years and has a front-row seat to what's actually happening with physical supply, through his senior role at Sprott Money, one of North America’s biggest bullion dealers.

He’s on the phone with clients all day, but I checked in with him again last night for an update, and here's what he told me.

The Mints Are Struggling

Let's start with delivery times. If you order American Silver Eagles right now, you're looking at 4 weeks. Canadian Maples? About 3 weeks.

But here's the bigger story: the Royal Canadian Mint isn't making any silver bars. None. No 10 oz bars, no 100 oz bars. Just coins. And there's no ETA on when bar production resumes. Same situation with gold bars.

Meanwhile, the US Mint produced 80% less silver eagles in 2025 than they did in 2024. That's not a typo. Eighty percent.

When I asked why, the answer was telling: "It's quite suspicious why they did it. There's no reason to cut down the flow unless there's a reason to."

The Allocation Game

Here's something most retail investors don't know: major dealers don't just order what they need from the mints. They get allocated product.

The mint tells them what they're getting. Not the other way around.

Sprott Money hadn't been on allocation for 3.5 years. Now they are. So is everyone else. The mints are controlling the flow, and the allocations aren't enough to meet demand.

To fill the gap, dealers are buying from secondary market suppliers and relying heavily on buybacks from customers selling their existing holdings.

Record Buybacks - But What Does It Mean?

Speaking of buybacks, Sprott just hit a record: around 60-65 buyback orders in the past month. Normally they'd see 5-10.

"The largest number of buybacks we've ever had in our company's history," he told me.

So people are selling. Does that mean the smart money is cashing out?

His view? "They're all wrong."

He says that people are treating silver like a stock investment. It goes up, you take profits, you move on. But precious metals don't work that way. They're not growth stocks that peak early and slowly decline. They're currency hedges that start low and go parabolic at the end of a monetary cycle.

"They're thinking as an investor," he said. "If they understood what's actually happening, they'd have a whole different take."

Andrew also recommended a recent video by Alan Hibbard which is worth a watch.

The Demand Paradox

Right now, 70% of Sprott Money’s volume is silver (by quantity). Demand increases as price rises - the exact opposite of what you'd expect with most assets.

But here's the paradox he's seen play out many times before: if we get a sharp 20-30% correction, the phones stop ringing. The very moment people should be buying is when they disappear.

"I have people call me all the time saying they want to wait for a pullback," he said. "I tell them there's been three in the last six weeks. They didn't even know."

Where Does He Think This Is Going?

I'll be honest - his price targets are aggressive. But he's been closer to right than most over the past few months, so I'll share them.

He says Canadian Silver Maple retail prices could hit $150 USD within the next couple of weeks. By the end of February, he's looking at over $200 spot. By the end of the year, he believes even $500 is possible.

That’s very bold, but his reasoning is straightforward: "It's a completely supply and demand market now. Completely different than the last two bull markets. Those were margin-driven - margin calls would collapse the price. Now margin calls happen and the price recovers in two days."

In the Weeks Ahead

The next couple of weeks will tell us a lot about supply. If the Canadian mint delivers a second allocation this month, that's a positive sign - at least they're not getting worse. If they don't, the delivery times will stretch much further.

Meanwhile, the disconnect continues: record demand, constrained supply, mints on allocation, and yet most investors are still sitting on the sidelines or selling into strength.

Whether you agree with the most bullish price targets or not, the supply picture is real. Someone who actually handles the metal every day is saying they can't get enough of it, and that's worth paying attention to.

I’m hoping to get Andrew back every couple of weeks or so, to keep us updated with all the latest news from inside the bullion industry.

Andrew works for Sprott Money and they’re a great choice for buying physical in the U.S. or Canada. I’ve recently bought Silver from them myself.

Wherever you are, you can also buy, sell and store allocated gold and silver with BullionVault.

In the meantime, that’s all for this Tuesday, folks. I’ll see you on Thursday.

Before you go, please take a moment to rate today’s newsletter and tell us how we did.

Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com