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Gold and silver have bounced over the last couple of days on ceasefire speculation, but I'm not buying the optimism just yet. I just got off the phone with Andrew Sleigh at Sprott Money, and for the first time, the tone was very different. Here's what he's seeing on the ground.

Ok, let’s dive in. 👇

Gold pushed above $4,500 on Wednesday while silver regained $73 before giving up some of its early gains, both extending a multi-day bounce off their recent lows as markets latched onto any hint of diplomatic progress in the US-Iran war. The catalyst: reports that Washington sent Tehran a 15-point peace proposal via Pakistan, with a one-month ceasefire floated to get both sides talking. Iran publicly rejected the plan and fired back with its own conditions - including war reparations and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz - but the White House insists talks are still "productive," and Trump has delayed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure while negotiations play out.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is deploying thousands of additional troops to the region, and Trump warned Iran has days to reach a deal before targeting its oil assets. Both metals remain well off their January highs - gold is still down roughly 16% from the $5,400 area, silver about 40% from $121 - after war-driven energy prices sent inflation expectations surging and crushed rate-cut hopes.

Fed Governor Michael Barr reinforced that message Tuesday, saying the central bank may need to hold rates steady "for some time" with inflation still running about a percentage point above the 2% target. The bounce feels real, but with a March 28 strike deadline looming and Iran digging in, this rally is trading on hope - and hope has an expiry date.

I've been doing regular interviews with Andrew Sleigh at Sprott Money for a few months now. He's always been bullish. Sometimes aggressively so.

This week was different.

For the first time in any of our conversations, Andrew told me he thinks silver has further to fall. Not a little wobble. He's watching for a move into the mid-$60s after this current bounce fades, and if that doesn't hold, down into the $50s. That kind of drop would likely need a big catalyst, probably some combination of the Iran conflict escalating and a stock market correction dragging everything liquid down with it.

As I write this on Wednesday night, Silver is sitting around $72. Andrew sees that as the key level. It got above $72, got rejected back down, and is now making a second attempt. If it can't break through and hold, he expects a drop toward $60.

His timeline? Not a quick two-week flush. He thinks this could grind on for one to two months.

Now, Andrew hasn't turned long-term bearish. Quite the opposite - he's still buying silver himself. He still thinks triple-digit silver is possible by summer. But the near-term technical picture shifted when silver broke down out of a bear flag channel. Historically, those break upward about three out of four times. This one didn't.

"I had to go with the law of averages," he told me. "The odds were saying it was going to break upward. It went downward. Okay, now we're down below 72."

What's happening on the ground

The retail metals market has gone quiet over the last three weeks. After the frenzy of December, January, and February, when every dealer in the industry was pushed to the brink, this pullback has given the whole supply chain a chance to catch its breath.

Delivery times at Sprott Money are back to about 8 to 10 days. Two months ago, you were waiting weeks.

Silver Maples are plentiful. So plentiful that Sprott was running deals to move 10,000 to 15,000 of them off their shelves. Gold coins? No issues. The one exception is silver bars. Mints still aren't producing them in volume, so those remain scarce.

Buybacks have gone quiet too. People aren't selling at these prices, which tells you something about conviction levels among existing holders.

Who's still buying?

Two types, according to Andrew.

The first are buying on every dip, averaging in with large positions, sometimes $100,000 a week. They're not trying to nail the bottom. They just want exposure and they're comfortable accumulating on the way down.

The second don't care about price direction at all. They want out of the banking system. Whether silver goes up or down next month, they'd rather hold ounces than have six or seven figures sitting in a bank account. Even if the price drops, they still own the metal. It comes back eventually.

And the panickers? Almost non-existent. The occasional brand-new buyer calls with regret, but anyone who's been through a cycle or two treats this as normal. As Andrew put it, with a laugh: "Some days I think this could be called the precious metals helpline."

The bigger picture

Two months ago, with silver and gold at record highs, you couldn't get product. Dealers were overwhelmed, delivery times stretched into weeks, and mint allocations were rationed. Now, with prices well off those highs, shelves are full and the phones are quiet.

Andrew reminded me that just a few years ago, the industry would have been celebrating $100 Canadian silver and $71 US. Now those same prices feel like a disaster. But the mining companies are still exceptionally profitable at these levels. The metal is still there.

"People should be accumulating," Andrew said. "You can never get the bottom, but you can nibble on the way down and nibble on the way back up."

A few months from now, when the next rush hits and delivery times blow out again, today's prices will look like a gift. Whether most people have the patience to act on that is another matter.

That’s all for this Thursday, folks. I’ll see you on Sunday.

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Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com