Good morning GoldBuzzers, and welcome to your Tuesday update!

Gold and Silver are once again at new all-time highs, having eased through resistance at $4,000 and $50 like a hot knife through butter.

In today’s Company Corner, I’m going to be shining the GoldBuzz spotlight on South African powerhouse, Harmony Gold.

At current gold prices, they're generating enough cash to buy a mid-tier producer every 18 months. When you're this loaded in a consolidating sector, you don't chase growth - growth chases you.

OK, let’s dive in.

Gold blazed higher on Monday, surging past $4,100 per ounce to clock a fresh record high of $4,121, up more than 3% as investors fled to safe havens amid fears of a renewed US-China trade war. Silver set another new all-time high at $52.27.

The rally intensified after President Trump on Friday threatened to slap an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1st, on top of the 30% already in place which would push total levies toward 130% and rattling global markets. The move came in retaliation for Beijing's new export controls on rare earth minerals, with China firing back over the weekend that it's "not afraid" of a trade war.

Markets are now pricing in a near-certain Fed rate cut at the October meeting, with an 88% probability of another in December, adding fuel to gold's momentum as lower rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. The ongoing US government shutdown has further cemented expectations for additional cuts, with the Fed likely to err on the side of easing given economic uncertainty.

The government shutdown is likely to cement additional Fed interest rate cuts Friday's tariff threats triggered a massive selloff across US equities, with the S&P 500 down 2.7% and the Nasdaq plunging 3.5%. The global trade war just came roaring back - sending nervous investors piling into gold and silver's familiar embrace.

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (NYSE: HMY) isn't just South Africa's largest gold producer - it's the mining equivalent of a Formula 1 car running on two different fuel types.

While I had started researching this article last weekend, Harmony just had a record-breaking session on Monday, with their stock soaring an astounding 8.7% on the day. Did somebody let them know they were being featured in GoldBuzz today!?

With an $11 billion market cap and operations spanning from the world's deepest gold mines to Papua New Guinea's volcanic highlands, this Johannesburg-based juggernaut operates 9 underground mines, 1 open pit, and various surface operations, churning out 1.48 million ounces of gold annually while secretly plotting its copper empire.

Founded in 1950 (when apartheid was just getting started and Elvis was still in high school), Harmony has spent the past 75 years becoming what every South African miner dreams about: profitable, diversified, and sitting on $614 million in cash.

They just dropped $1.03 billion to buy MAC Copper like it was loose change, adding Australia's CSA copper mine to their empire and positioning themselves to produce 100,000 tonnes of copper annually by 2028.

Q3 results won’t be out for about another month, so let’s see how they did in Q2.

Q2 2025: When Mediocrity Meets Money Printing

Sometimes being average at the right time is genius:

The Money Shot:

Production Stats:

The MAC Copper Deal: Playing Monopoly with Real Money

While everyone else was fighting over scraps, Harmony played 4D chess and bought the whole board in what’s looking like a great deal:

The MAC/CSA Acquisition:

This isn't an acquisition; it's industrial manifest destiny. Combined with their Eva Copper project (55,000-60,000 tonnes/year by 2028), Harmony just became a 100,000 tonne copper producer wearing a gold miner costume.

What's Working (The Victory Lap)

✅ Grade Excellence: Mponeng delivering 10.70 g/t grades. That's not mining; that's basically picking up gold bars from the ground. Underground operations averaging 6.27 g/t when peers struggle to hit 4 g/t.

✅ Cash Generation Monster: ZAR 11 billion ($614 million) in free cash flow at 16% margins. They're generating more cash than a Vegas casino on fight night. Could literally buy a junior miner every quarter with pocket change.

✅ Balance Sheet Fortress: Net debt/EBITDA below 0.5x. They have more financial flexibility than a yoga instructor. ZAR 18 billion ($1 billion) in undrawn facilities – that's dry powder for days.

✅ Operational Consistency: 10 consecutive years meeting production guidance. In mining, that's like hitting 10 straight three-pointers blindfolded.

✅ The Wafi-Golpu Wild Card: Currently on ice due to PNG politics, but if it reopens, that's another potential 250,000 oz/year. It's like having a lottery ticket worth $500M in your back pocket.

What's Not (The Reality Pills)

⚠️ Cost Creep Monster: AISC at $1,806/oz vs peers at $1,580-1,650/oz. They're profitable but expensive, like shopping at Whole Foods.

⚠️ Eskom Energy Drama: 16% increase in electricity costs with South Africa's power utility hiking rates faster than crypto pumps. Running generators in Africa isn't cheap.

⚠️ Hidden Valley Disappointment: Grades down 30% to 1.24 g/t. The PNG mine is becoming the problem child nobody talks about at dinner.

⚠️ Labor Cost Inflation: South African mining wages up double digits. When your workforce is 2 kilometers underground, they tend to negotiate hard.

⚠️ Valuation Reality Check: Trading at 10.98x P/E when junior miners trade at 5x. You're paying for quality and consistency, not value.

Why This Matters in the Bull Market

The Macro Context:

Harmony isn't betting on gold going to $5,000/oz to make money – they're profitable at $2,000/oz and printing cash at current levels. With:

...owning the highest-grade, most consistent African gold producer with a copper kicker seems less like speculation and more like inevitability.

vs. The Competition:

The Bottom Line

The Bull Case: Harmony is the blue-chip of African gold mining, with a dominant market position, fortress balance sheet, and transitioning into a copper powerhouse. With gold at $4,000/oz, they should soon be generating $2B+ in annual free cash flow. The dividend yield could hit 8%+. It's the "own it and forget it" way to play both the gold bull market and the energy transition.

The Bear Case: At $1,806/oz AISC and a premium valuation, it’s on the expensive side and a lot of easy money has been made. South African politics can be volatile, plus, deep-level mining is dangerous - one major incident could crater the stock.

The Verdict: For conservative investors who missed the initial gold rally, this is your second chance. For momentum traders looking for the next rocket ship, keep walking.

A quick roundup of stories you might have missed:

Gold just smashed through the $4,000 barrier for the first time ever last Tuesday, with Ray Dalio telling investors to dump 15% of their portfolio into the shiny stuff because "cash is trash" CNBC

Goldman Sachs is now calling for $4,900 gold by mid-2026, hiking their forecast from $4,300 after watching central banks and ETFs hoover up gold like it's Black Friday at Costco. FinancialContent

A salvage crew just pulled over $1 million worth of Spanish coins from a 310-year-old shipwreck off Florida's "Treasure Coast" NBC News

Czech archaeologists uncovered hundreds of priceless Celtic gold and silver coins at a "secret site" that nobody expected to contain Celtic settlements Fox News

First Majestic Silver cranked out nearly 1.8 million ounces of silver in Q3, while silver itself has now hit an all-time high over $50. Junior Mining Network

Chinese geologists claim they've discovered what could be the world's largest gold deposit with 1,100 tons of the yellow metal worth $83 billion, featuring gold grades so rich that you can literally see the gold in the rock cores. Popular Mechanics

China's central bank just extended its gold-buying streak to 11 consecutive months, because apparently even communist party officials know that printing money isn't a sustainable retirement plan. Discovery Alert

Fortune analysts are projecting gold could hit $10,000 by 2028 if the current pace keeps up, and if you doubt that, just remember that most analysts thought $4,000 was crazy just last year. Fortune

That’s a wrap for Tuesday, folks. See you on Thursday.

Before you go, please take a moment to rate today’s newsletter and tell us how we did.

Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com