Happy Tuesday, GoldBuzzers!

I hope those of you in the US and Canada enjoyed the long Labor Day weekend. Today's feature is one I've been wanting to write for a while: a proper stress test of the gold-silver ratio against 55 years of daily data.

The results surprised me in one important way - at its extremes, the ratio doesn't just tell you when to act, it also tells you which metal to hold. Whether your stack leans toward gold or silver, this one is worth your time over a full cup of coffee.

Ok. Let’s get into it. ⬇️

With North American markets closed for Labor Day, gold slipped to around $4,400 an ounce on Monday and silver held a narrow range near $66, both still digesting Friday's jobs surprise. US payrolls grew by 162,000 in August - nearly triple what economists expected - while unemployment held at 4.1 percent, and that was enough to push bond yields higher and lift the odds of a Fed rate hike next week to roughly 60 percent, up from about 50 before the data.

PPI and CPI land later this week, and with crude oil near a three-month high after the US and Iran exchanged strikes on shipping over the weekend, the inflation picture isn't doing the doves any favors. There's one bright spot for the bulls, though: China added to its gold reserves for a 22nd straight month in August, taking official holdings to 76.73 million ounces.

Volumes should pick back up when US desks reopen this morning, and I'd expect the metals to take their next cue from the inflation prints.

In April 2025, one ounce of gold bought you 105 ounces of silver. By late January this year it bought just 46, and today the number is 67. If those figures sound like trivia, look at what happened in between: silver ran from $33 to a closing peak above $116 while gold gained 29 percent. The ratio recorded that move, but it also flagged it in advance for anyone who knew how to read it.

So this week I want to dig into the gold-silver ratio properly. I've been researching it in detail over the past few weeks, using the past 55 years of daily price data, and what I found cuts against some of the established folklore.

The math couldn't be simpler: divide the gold price by the silver price. At Friday’s closing prices around $4,430 gold and $66 silver, you get 67.

What makes the number useful is silver's character. Silver is a far smaller market than gold, and more volatile, so when precious metals rally, silver tends to outrun gold. That's why the ratio falls during bull markets - not because gold is weak, but because silver is outperforming it. When fear takes over, the reverse happens. Investors dump silver and crowd into gold, and the ratio spikes higher.

You can see both behaviors across five and a half decades of data.

The extremes are landmarks. In January 1980, at the climax of the great 1970s bull market, the ratio touched a low of 14. In March 2020, in the depths of the COVID panic, it hit 122 - the highest reading since the dollar left the gold standard in 1971 and gold began trading freely. Silver traded at $12.22 at that 2020 peak. Within 12 months it had more than doubled.

The standard advice says a falling ratio is bullish for precious metals. That's true as far as it goes. The ratio falls because silver is outperforming, and that mostly happens when the whole complex is rising. But that describes what's already happening rather than what comes next.

So I researched a harder question. I sorted every daily reading since 1970 by level, then measured what silver did over the following 12 months.

The middle of the gold-silver ratio range doesn’t tell us anything. Readings between 55 and 85, where the ratio spends most of its life, give you median forward returns close to zero. Even a ratio that had already fallen hard offered no edge - buying after a five percent six-month decline in the ratio produced a slightly negative median outcome.

The extremes are a different animal. When the ratio stood above 85, silver's median return over the next year was 26 percent against gold's 15, and the outcome for silver was positive 81 percent of the time. Above 100, silver's median jumps to 75 percent and every reading in the sample was followed by a positive year. Gold over the same periods managed eight percent. The mirror image shows up at the bottom. Below 40, gold's median forward return was 23 percent while silver managed eight, and the 40 to 55 zone - reached after silver has already had its big run - handed silver holders a median loss of nine percent.

Looking at it this way, the ratio isn't a momentum tool, it's a mean-reversion one. It rewards you for acting when it's stretched, not for chasing it after it moves. And at those stretched readings it even tells you which metal to favor.

Which brings us back to the past 18 months.

When the ratio pushed through 100 in April 2025, history said the odds heavily favored silver. Silver then doubled from that point while gold rose 29 percent. The ratio bottomed at 46 on January 27 - one day before silver printed its $116 high. Readings in the 40s have usually meant lean forward returns for silver, and the sharp pullback since January fits that history. But the record also cuts the other way: the great bull markets of 1980 and 2011 carried the ratio all the way to 14 and 32 before they topped, so a visit to the 40s doesn't by itself mean the cycle is done.

And if this bull market runs as far as those two did, the ratio has a great deal further to fall over the next few years - a halving from today's 67 would only match the 2011 low.

As for the statistics, today's 67 sits in the quiet middle. The forward-return numbers attach no strong message to a reading like this, and I'd be wary of anyone claiming otherwise.

The action this week is knowing the ratio zones before the next extreme arrives. Above 85, history has paid silver buyers well; below 40, it has favored gold instead. Between those levels the ratio has little to say - but that's a verdict on one indicator, not on the market.

Metals can trend hard while the ratio drifts sideways, and timing those moves is a job for faster tools. The research shows that while the gold-silver ratio has its limitations, it's powerful at identifying the generational extremes.

That’s all for this Tuesday, folks. I’ll see you on Thursday.

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Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com