Happy Sunday, GoldBuzzers!

I hope you’re sitting back with a suitable beverage because I’ve got a lot of great stuff to share with you today.

We’ve had yet another profitable week in gold and silver land, and in today’s Deep Dive, I’m going to lift the lid on the profound institutional shift that’s just starting to take place.

It’s a change that’s going to have enormous implications for the price of our favourite shiny metals in the future.

Ok, let's dive in!

Gold closed the week at $3,885 per ounce on Friday, just shy of Thursday's record high of $3,897, as investors piled into the yellow metal for a seventh consecutive week of gains. The ongoing US government shutdown has thrown markets into uncertainty, with the September jobs report delayed indefinitely and alternative data painting a picture of an economy losing steam.

With chaos in Washington and economic data cooling, the Fed's path is becoming clearer: markets are now pricing in two consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts at the remaining meetings this year. Lower rates mean lower opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets like gold, and traders are acting accordingly. At $3,875, gold is up a staggering 48% year-to-date - on pace for its best annual performance since 1979, when it surged 126% during the last great gold bull market.

The bottom line: Gold is doing what it does best - providing a safe harbor when uncertainty reigns. With the Fed pivoting dovish, a government in gridlock, and economic momentum fading, the setup for precious metals couldn't be stronger heading into Q4. That $4,000 level (and $50 silver) aren't just psychological anymore - they’re looking inevitable.

As I mentioned the other day, I’ve had requests to include some additional data in the Scoreboard section, so that debuts today.

Particularly useful for gold and silver bugs is watching the performance of the major precious metals exchange traded funds, so I’m planning to include the big 6, and here’s a brief description of them.

GLD and SLV are physically backed ETFs that provide cost-efficient exposure to the spot prices of gold and silver, respectively, through physical holdings of bullion in vaults.

GDX and SIL are equity ETFs that provide targeted exposure to the performance of global large- and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies, respectively, primarily established producers and streaming firms.

GDXJ and SILJ are equity ETFs that provide targeted exposure to the performance of global small- and mid-cap junior gold and silver mining companies, respectively, primarily smaller exploration, development, and early-stage production firms.

Finally, for reference I’ll also include the big 3 US indices (S&P, DOW and Nasdaq) as well as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

It’s not easy to lay this out in a way that works on phones as well as big screens but let me know what you think.

Three weeks ago in the Sunday Supplement, I took a look at the Tether Gold/Bitcoin announcement and in response to that article, I just received an email from a loyal reader in London who sent me a link to this interesting tweet.

So there you have it, the Gold/Crypto strategy is now referred to as “the debasement trade” at JP Morgan! That tells you everything you need to know about how large financial institutions now regard the long-term future of the dollar and government bonds.

What I think’s most significant here is that the Gold/Crypto movement is part of a much wider picture where institutions are now realizing that something is fundamentally broken in the system, and traditional safe-havens, such as bonds, may not be so safe in the future.

I've watched gold long enough to know when something's actually changing. This is one of those times.

The numbers don't work. Trillions chasing billions. Someone loses.

Let me explain.

Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson just recommended a 60/20/20 portfolio split: 60% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% gold. Not 1% or 3% or 5%. Twenty percent.

Jeff Gundlach went further. The Bond King managing $95 billion says investors could hold up to a quarter of their portfolios in gold.

These aren't obscure crypto influencers. These are the people moving institutional capital.

The numbers get unmanageable very quickly.

The entire physical gold bullion market was worth $59.3 billion in 2023.

Now do the math on what happens when even a fraction of institutional portfolios start to allocate 20% into precious metals.

U.S. retirement accounts hold over $35 trillion. Just a twenty percent of that? $7 trillion. The entire gold market? $60 billion.

If you’ve got your calculator handy then $7 trillion divided by $60 billion is 116.67.

The problem is obvious - Potentially 116 times more demand than supply.

When too much money chases too few assets, prices move violently. That's just how markets work.

As Gold continues to hit record highs, Central banks bought over 1,000 tonnes for three consecutive years. High net worth investors doubled their allocations in the past year.

And all that was before Wall Street's biggest names told everyone to pile in.

The supply side can't respond quickly. As today’s Lord of the Rings meme will attest, One does not simply print more gold!

Mining takes years to ramp up. Physical delivery has limits.

Maybe the gold market manages to absorb the first trillion. J.P. Morgan thinks we hit $4,000 by mid-2026, but my numbers point to much higher targets in the next few years. That assumes things stay orderly.

The second trillion? Maybe. That cash will start pouring into mining companies. But there's a point where the numbers just stop working.

Wilson calls gold "the anti-fragile asset." Gundlach calls it "insurance." Both are right.

But insurance works best when you buy it before everyone else figures out they need it.

A selection of must-read stories from around the web this week:

Gold's weight in the Global Market Portfolio has exploded to 4.5% in 2025 from just 1.2% in 2000, surpassing even the 2011-12 crisis levels, as central banks hoard the metal like it's the Bretton Woods era all over again. State Street

Mining ETFs are absolutely crushing it with GDX up 128% year-to-date – its strongest performance in the fund's two-decade history – yet investors are yanking $4.6 billion out while pouring $35 billion into physical gold ETFs. ETF.com

Despite gold prices in India smashing through the Rs. 1 lakh per 10 grams mark (about $4,000 per ounce), Diwali buyers are still showing up in droves, just switching from heavy jewelry to lightweight designs and coins. Goodreturns

Florida treasure hunters just pulled more than $1 million worth of Spanish gold and silver coins from the ocean floor, from a fleet that went down in a hurricane 310 years ago. WPTV

Central banks continue on their gold-buying bender, with Poland, China, India and Russia leading the way. Discovery Alert

In last Sunday’s poll, I asked what concerns you most about the current gold and silver bull market. Here’s what you said.

52% of you are most concerned about missing the rally and 38% about a potential correction.

That’s the thing about true bull markets, there will certainly be corrections along the way (sometimes significant) but they’ll keep on making new highs until the technical and fundamental factors change.

That’s All for this Sunday, folks! I hope you enjoyed it.

Before you go, please take a moment to rate today's newsletter and tell us how we did.

Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com