Good morning GoldBuzzers, and welcome to another golden Tuesday! 🌟

I hope you have your coffee extra strong today because gold just went full beast mode, blasting through $3,600 for the first time in history.

While everyone else was doom-scrolling the jobs report (spoiler: it was weak), those paying attention were backing up the truck on bullion. The Fed's basically waving the white flag on tight money, and gold's having its "I told you so" moment.

In today’s Company Corner, we're diving into why Newmont - the Costco of gold mining - is absolutely crushing it with $1.7 billion in free cash flow last quarter. Plus, Poland's central bank is going full gold hoarder mode and Russia and China are basically running their own precious metals Black Friday sale.

Let's dig in! ⛏️

Gold Flies Past $3,600 as Fed Capitulation Bets Intensify

Gold glittered at center stage Monday, powering past $3,600 an ounce for the first time ever as traders doubled down on bets the Fed is about to throw in the towel on tight money.

A weak August jobs report lit the fire. The US added fewer positions than expected and unemployment crept to its highest level since 2021. That’s a combo that screamed "slowdown" to markets, and all signs point to the Fed trimming rates by 25bps at its meeting later this month.

The next two big data checkpoints will be the Producer Price Index on Thursday and CPI on Friday. Hotter-than-expected numbers could cool gold's run, but if inflation keeps easing, the case for cuts strengthens.

Meanwhile, central banks keep stacking those bars! The People's Bank of China grew reserves for a tenth straight month in August, part of its steady shift away from the dollar. Worldwide, steady central bank appetite has been one of the year's biggest drivers for bullion.

Gold and Silver are both up 45% in 12 months, bolstered by a weaker dollar, policy easing hopes, and a fog of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Since launching Company Corner last week, I’ve already received several requests to take a look at Newmont (and also Barrick and Agnico Eagle), the world’s 3 largest gold miners.

There's good reason for this interest. In bull markets like we're experiencing now, new money typically flows to the largest, most established players first. Think of it as the "safe entry point" for investors who just want precious metals exposure but aren't ready to dive into junior miners or exploration plays yet.

The big three offer liquidity, diversified operations, and proven track records - making them the natural starting point before money eventually filters down to medium-sized and smaller, higher-risk, higher-reward companies.

Therefore, I wasn’t surprised to read that Newmont has been one of the most searched stocks on research portal Zacks recently.

So, let’s take a look.

Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold producer. Their market cap is around $83 billion, which for context, makes them larger than Motorola.

Newmont has operations across Australia, North America, and South America. Think of them as the Costco of mining with bulk production, global scale, and a portfolio that's been beefed up through acquisitions like the massive Newcrest buyout.

They recently dropped their Q2 2025 earnings, and spoiler: it's a gold rush of good news, so let’s quickly break it down.

Newmont crushed it this quarter, staying laser-focused on their "core portfolio" after shedding some non-essential assets. Here's the cheat sheet:

Production Powerhouse: They churned out 1.5 million ounces of attributable gold and 36,000 tonnes of copper. Key sites like Cadia and Peñasquito delivered higher-than-expected grades, keeping things humming.

Cash Flow King: Record-breaking free cash flow of $1.7 billion - yep, that's billion with a B. Total operating cash flow from ops hit $2.4 billion, fueled by sky-high gold prices (average realized at $3,320/oz, up $376 from Q1). Adjusted Q2 EBITDA? A whopping $3 billion.

Shareholder Love: They returned $1.0 billion to investors since the last call via dividends and buybacks, plus retired $372 million in debt. Oh, and they greenlit another $3 billion share repurchase program. Dividend stays steady at $0.25 per share, payable September 29.

Balance Sheet Flex: They ended Q2 with a very healthy $6.2 billion in cash and $10.2 billion in total liquidity. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA? A microscopic 0.1x. Investment-grade strong.

Earnings-wise, adjusted net income soared to $1.6 billion ($1.43 per diluted share), blowing past analyst estimates of $1.14. No wonder the stock popped - up 7% right after the release and doubled year-to-date. Gold prices are on fire, and Newmont's riding the wave.

Not everything was glittery. On July 22, a "fall of ground" incident hit their Red Chris project in British Columbia. Underground collapses suspended ops and led to three workers being trapped for 60 hours before they were safely rescued.

Red Chris is non-producing, so no big production hit, but it underscores why safety's non-negotiable in mining.

Newmont's reaffirming their full-year 2025 guidance - no changes needed, which is music to investors' ears. They're eyeing stable ops, more cash from selling assets (expecting over $3 billion from selling non-core assets), and continued shareholder returns.

As always, watch for risks: any prolonged Red Chris drama or broader sector headwinds like rising costs could dent some of the shine. Overall, I’d say that for cautious portfolios, Newmont's a no-brainer long-term hold or buy, being diversified, cash-rich, and shareholder-friendly. But we never bet the farm on any one stock, as mining's always got surprises buried deep!

My take? Newmont has been killing it - their sheer scale and discipline are paying off big time with record cash flow in Q2 2025. That's honestly the stuff of mining legends. The stock's run-up does feel justified to me, and as the gold bull continues over the coming years, there’s room for a lot more upside.

Newmont closed last night at 75.75. For those who’ve been invested since the start of 2025 when Newmont opened the year at 38.06, you’re already enjoying a 99% return, and almost 2.5 times Gold’s own price increase YTD. That’s what a real gold bull market looks like, folks! 🚀

A quick roundup of stories you might have missed:

Gold Miners Are Absolutely Printing Money Right Now – The world's top gold producers are living their best life with seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year profit growth ranging from 31% to 90%, as record gold prices are turning even mediocre mines into cash machines. Discovery Alert

Poland's Central Bank Can't Stop, Won't Stop Buying Gold – The National Bank of Poland adding another 49 tonnes in Q1 2025 to blow past their 20% reserve target, because when you’re in the know, you buy gold. Advisor Perspectives

Russia and China Are Trading Gold Like It's Black Friday – Chinese imports of Russian precious metals exploded 80% to reach $1 billion in just the first half of 2025, as both countries basically said "dollars are so last year" and started their own precious metals party. Discovery Alert

Gold ETFs Are Back, Baby – After years of outflows, gold ETFs saw US$5.5bn in August inflows alone, with investors piling back in as they realize maybe having some "insurance" isn't such a bad idea when everything else looks shaky. World Gold Council

Product watch — Cantor Fitzgerald rolled out a gold-protected Bitcoin fund that pairs crypto upside with bullion downside protection. BusinessWire.

A Vermont gardener literally unearthed a chest of old gold and silver coins in a park -because sometimes a treasure hunt beats market research! NBC5

That’s a Tuesday wrap, GoldBuzzers! See you all on Thursday.

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Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com