Good morning GoldBuzzers, and Happy Tuesday!

Gold and Silver are refusing to hit the snooze button, and the recent extraordinary gains just keep on coming – with Silver now up a jaw-dropping 60% YTD and showing no signs of slowing down.

It's the GoldBuzz mission to bring mainstream awareness to how this precious metals boom can reshape our financial futures, and the fantastic feedback you've been sending in has been truly appreciated. Seriously, some of your emails have been pure gold (pun intended).

With silver's dramatic price surge making headlines everywhere, in today's Company Corner I'll lift the lid on another interesting silver play that's been quietly preparing itself for this exact moment.

Let's dive in – the water's fine, and it's full of precious metals! 💰

Gold prices made history on Monday, breaking through $3,800 per ounce for the first time ever as the dollar weakened and traders ramped up bets on additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. The yellow metal's surge comes after Friday's PCE inflation data landed right in line with expectations, reinforcing the case for continued monetary easing. Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of another rate cut at the Fed's October meeting, with roughly 65% odds of a further cut in December.

This week could be pivotal for gold's next move. Investors will be parsing through a packed economic calendar including Tuesday's job openings data (JOLTS), Wednesday's ADP private payrolls report, Thursday's ISM manufacturing PMI, and Friday's crucial non-farm payrolls number. These releases will offer fresh clues on whether the US economy is cooling enough to justify the Fed's dovish stance.

Adding to market jitters: the looming threat of a US government shutdown this week and President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imported drugs, trucks, and furniture set to kick in October 1st.

Both factors are injecting additional uncertainty into an already volatile landscape, which historically has been rocket fuel for safe-haven assets like gold. With geopolitical tensions simmering and macro headwinds building, precious metals continue to shine as portfolio insurance in uncertain times.

Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK) is the mining equivalent of that friend who keeps starting businesses until one finally clicks. Founded in 1981 (originally as Endeavour Gold Corp.), this Vancouver-based operation has spent 40+ years clawing its way up the silver ladder.

Last week, I looked at Hecla. With Endeavour’s market cap around $2.1 billion, they're the David to Hecla's Goliath – smaller, scrappier, but potentially more explosive.

Operating three mines (Guanaceví, Bolañitos, newly acquired Kolpa) plus the about-to-launch Terronera project, Endeavour is basically running a "quantity AND quality" strategy across Mexico and Peru.

Think of them as the ambitious middle child – not the biggest (Pan American at $10B+), not the purest play (First Majestic), but hungry enough to make bold moves that could 3x their production.

Let's rip off the band-aid first – despite all the great news in the precious metals sector, Q2 wasn't pretty on paper for Endeavour:

The Reality Check:

But Wait, There's More:

Translation: They're losing money on paper while actually generating cash. Welcome to mining accounting, where everything's made up and the points don't matter until commercial production.

Bought for $145 million in May, this Peruvian mine is already crushing expectations. Processing 118,896 tonnes in Q2, it's delivering at $11.81/oz cash costs – their lowest-cost operation. It's like buying a rental property that's already cash-flowing day one.

This isn't just another mine – I believe it's Endeavour's ticket to the big leagues. Currently ramping up (1,900-2,000 tpd by July-end), targeting 4 million ounces silver + 38,000 ounces gold annually. After some hiccups (steel delivery delays pushed wet commissioning to Q2), they're finally approaching commercial production with 71% silver and 67% gold recovery rates.

Guanaceví and Bolañitos aren't sexy, but they're reliable. Combined production of 4.5-5.2 million ounces silver expected in 2025. Yes, they're mature (translation: expensive), but at $47/oz silver, they're still printing money.

Strategic Positioning: While competitors chase mega-deals (Pan American buying MAG for $2.1B), Endeavour's making surgical strikes. The Kolpa deal added immediate production at great costs.

Terronera Momentum: After years of "trust us, it's coming," they're actually delivering. Already generating $3 million in concentrate sales during commissioning. This is like soft-launching your app and already having paying customers.

Balance Sheet Flexibility: Expanded credit facility to $135 million, completed $50 million equity raise. They're not drowning in debt like some juniors.

The Pipeline: Pitarrilla project waiting in the wings with $25.7 million budgeted for development. They're playing chess while others play checkers.

Profitability MIA: That -$0.03 EPS stings. Yes, it's due to Terronera commissioning costs, but Wall Street hates red ink.

Cost Creep: AISC at $25.16/oz vs. Hecla's $5.19/oz. They're making money, but not THAT much money.

Execution Risk: Terronera delays show they're not immune to Murphy's Law. Steel deliveries during Mexican holiday restrictions? Rookie mistake.

Size Matters: At 2.5M oz quarterly production vs. Hecla's 4.5M oz, they're still the little brother.

CEO Dan Dickson isn't blowing smoke: "20 million silver equivalent ounces annually by 2026" is actually achievable with Terronera + Kolpa expansion to 2,500 tpd.

The Bull Case: Endeavour is 6-12 months away from transforming into a 20M oz/year producer. At current prices, that's ~$860M in annual silver revenue alone. With a $2.1B market cap, you're paying 2.4x forward revenue for a company about to double production. If silver hits $50-60/oz (very possible), this stock could legitimately 3x.

The Bear Case: Execution risk is real. Terronera could disappoint, costs could explode, silver could crash. That -$20M quarterly loss isn't nothing. If they can't get profitable with silver at $43/oz, when will they?

The Verdict: Endeavour is a leveraged bet on three things happening: (1) Terronera achieving commercial production smoothly, (2) Silver continuing its bull run, (3) Management executing their 20M oz vision. It's riskier than Hecla but with way more upside.

This isn't a widow-and-orphan stock but it's definitely a very enticing play for silver bulls who think the white metal's going parabolic.

Note that since Q2, they’ve made significant progress at Terronera.

A quick roundup of stories you might have missed:

Even back in June, JP Morgan's analysts were projecting gold could reach the magical $4,000 mark by mid-2026. J.P. Morgan Research

Earlier this year, The Silver Institute's Michael DiRienzo laid out an excellent case for Silver’s massive growth in global demand. OpenMarkets

Gold just blasted past $3,800/oz, driven by rate-cut bets, weak dollar and a dash of government shutdown fear. Reuters

Deutsche Bank says ETFs now wield 50% more power over gold pricing than in past years and money managers are snapping up bullion in a hurry. MarketWatch

Silver is quietly stealing the show: outpacing gold, fueled by both investment demand and industrial pull. The Economic Times

A Canadian mining consortium has hidden a chest containing $1 million in gold coins somewhere in the vast Canadian wilderness, sparking what they're calling the Great Canadian Treasure Hunt. Popular Science

That’s a wrap for Tuesday, folks. Stay safe and I’ll see you on Thursday.

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Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com