Happy Thursday, GoldBuzzers.

How does it feel to be living through history right now?

This is the mother of all precious metals bull markets - Gold touched $4,640 and Silver eclipsed $93 on Wednesday, and in today’s Real Talk, I’ll tell you why it has a long way to run.

Make sure to check at the end of the article, where I’ll tell you about a very big interview that I’m hoping to line up for Sunday’s edition.

Ok. Let's crack on.

The Fed drama is getting spicier than a Carolina Reaper - federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, supposedly about some building renovation testimony, but Powell's basically saying "this is really about interest rates, not construction costs."

Meanwhile, December's inflation data came in cooler than expected with core PPI flat, which has traders betting on 2-3 rate cuts this year (the Fed only wants to do one - good luck with that).

After the US strikes in Venezuela, action against Iran is now looking more likely. When you add the fact that silver's in a multi-year supply deficit with tight liquidity in London, and you've got yourself a perfect storm for precious metals. 🚀

When I completed the Theseus research project in the Spring of 2024, within days the system generated the strongest signal it had ever generated in over 50 years. That generational breakout signaled that the long-term price objectives would exceed $12,000 for gold and $150 for silver. That’s what led me to found GoldBuzz - to spread public awareness about what was happening.

At the time, Silver was around $23 an ounce. Last night, it closed over $93 - a quadrupling in price in just 22 months.

Gold's been on a tear too, but silver is absolutely smoking it. And while everyone's scrambling to explain this rally - Fed drama, geopolitics, China restrictions - many of them are missing the elephant in the room.

It's the shortage, people. Everything else is just gasoline on an already raging fire.

The Truth about The Deficit

The uncomfortable truth is: the silver market has been in deficit for FIVE consecutive years.

We're talking demand outstripping supply by roughly 95 million ounces in 2025 alone. The cumulative shortfall since 2021 is approaching 820 million ounces - essentially an entire year of global mine production.

And the reason that’s so crucial to understand: new silver mines take a decade to develop. This isn't a problem you can solve by flipping a switch.

Unlike gold, where miners actively hunt for the metal, roughly 70% of silver is mined as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc operations. Silver production isn't driven by silver prices - it's driven by base metal demand. Even at $200/oz, you can't spin up new silver mines overnight.

Meanwhile, inventories are draining fast. London vaults are seeing significant drawdowns. Shanghai stocks have fallen to 2015 lows. COMEX leverage hovers around 20:1 paper-to-physical. Lease rates have spiked above 5% multiple times - historically they sit near zero.

When holders demand premiums just to lend their metal, that's a screaming signal the physical market is tight.

China Tightens the Screws

On January 1st, China implemented new export controls. Not an outright ban - but close.

Only state-approved companies producing at least 80 tonnes annually can now export. Smaller players? Completely locked out. Beijing is treating silver like rare earths: a strategic asset to be controlled.

This matters because China isn't just a major producer - it's the world's dominant silver refiner. Early reports show Chinese firms offering $8-10 above market to secure physical metal from international producers. That kind of premium tells you supply chains are under serious stress.

Elon Musk's views on silver carry significant weight because his companies, especially Tesla, are projected to become one of the largest private consumers of the metal - potentially using up to 70 million ounces annually by 2030 across electric vehicles, solar panels, and other technologies - making supply constraints a direct threat to his multi-trillion-dollar empire.

In response to the Chinese export restrictions, Musk stated: "This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes."

Industrial Demand Won't Quit

Unlike gold, silver actually does stuff. Over 50% of annual production goes into solar panels, EVs, AI data centers, and medical devices.

The IEA projects global solar capacity will quadruple by 2030. Every panel, every EV, every server - they all need silver. And there's no real substitute for its unique conductivity.

This industrial demand doesn't care about price. Manufacturers have to buy regardless of whether silver is $30 or $100. When you're building a $50,000 solar installation, the silver cost is a rounding error.

The Bottom Line

It’s vital to understand that Silver's run isn't speculation or meme trading. It's basic economics: demand exceeds supply, inventory is draining, and there's no quick fix.

Every other catalyst - geopolitics, central bank buying, China's moves - is just amplifying a fundamental imbalance that's been building for years.

We're still in the early innings of this repricing. $100+ is just the market catching up to reality.

That’s all for the Thursday update, folks. I’ll see you Sunday.

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Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com