Happy Thursday, GoldBuzzers!
Records keep falling, those who know keep accumulating, and most people still don't get it.
In today’s Real Talk: why a viral chocolate video explains the psychology keeping investors on the sidelines, and what Japan's bond market meltdown means for metals.
Ok. Let's dive in!
The Scoreboard 🏆
The Greenland Rollercoaster 🎢
Gold blasted to a fresh all-time high of $4,888 on Wednesday as Greenland tensions hit fever pitch, then promptly gave back $50+ of those gains to settle around $4,830 after President Trump told Davos he's taking military force off the table.
Same story with silver - after flirting with $96 yesterday (yes, that's ninety-six dollars an ounce), it retreated to the $93-94 zone as the risk-off crowd hit the exits. The pattern here is textbook: tariff threats and Japanese bond market chaos send everyone scrambling for hard assets, then one calming soundbite triggers the profit-takers.
But even after today's pullback, gold is still up over 76% year-over-year, silver is up a ridiculous 200%+, and the white metal has just completed its fifth straight year of global supply deficit. So while the Greenland headlines make for great Twitter drama, the structural story underneath remains unchanged: too much debt, too little metal, and a lot of nervous money looking for somewhere to hide.
Real Talk 🎯
Would You Pick Chocolate Over $940?
A viral video from 2015 has been making the rounds again. People on a busy street are offered a simple choice: would you like a free 10-ounce Hershey's chocolate bar or a free 10-ounce bar of pure silver.
What do you think happens?
That 10 ounce silver bar? Worth about $150 in 2015. Today, with silver hovering near $94/oz, it would fetch over $940.
The clip has sparked predictable reactions - "Silver bugs recalculating their net worth" and "Hindsight is 20/20, but chocolate melts in your hand." But beneath the memes lies a crucial lesson about investor psychology, and general ignorance, that explains why most people still aren't positioned for this metals boom.
The Chocolate Brain Problem
Behavioral finance experts call it hyperbolic discounting - we're hardwired to overvalue immediate rewards (sweet, melty chocolate) over future gains (an appreciating asset). It's why we pick the candy bar. It's also why most investors chase volatile crypto pumps instead of building steady metals positions.
Despite gold surpassing $4,800/oz with a $32 trillion market cap - larger than Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon combined - the majority of investors are still sitting on the sidelines wondering what’s going on. The steady, "boring" grind of precious metals can't compete with dopamine hits from meme stocks.
Meanwhile, the macro signals are screaming.
Japan's Bond Market Is Flashing Red
If you're not following Japan, you really should be.
The 30-year Japanese government bond yield spiked 30 basis points in a single session to 3.90%. The 40-year hit 4% - levels not seen in decades. Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 250%, inflation is running hot, and the Bank of Japan is losing control.
Why does this matter for gold and silver?
Because, Japan holds over $1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. If they start selling to shore up their own markets, U.S. yields spike, the dollar weakens, and gold becomes the ultimate safe haven. It's already happening - silver has tripled against the yen over the past year.
The Supply Squeeze
COMEX registered silver inventories have plunged 70% from 2020 peaks, while the market faces its fifth consecutive supply deficit - 800 million ounces short since 2021. That's almost a full year of global production missing from the system.
Add China's export controls on silver, India's record $5.9 billion in silver imports last quarter, and surging industrial demand from solar panels and electronics - and you've got premiums hitting $103/oz in Shanghai.
Silver's market cap just topped $5 trillion, second only to gold. Yet it's still the undervalued underdog.
Why Your Financial Advisor Probably Isn't Helping
The unfortunate truth is that most advisors are incentivized by assets under management in equities and bonds, where fees flow from turnover. Physical metals don't generate the same commissions.
This blind spot ignores history. During 1970s stagflation, gold rose 2,300%. Today, with global debt at $300 trillion and central banks hoarding gold at record levels, the case is even stronger.
How to Beat Your Chocolate Brain
Overcoming these biases takes deliberate action:
Reframe your mindset - Treat metals as essential insurance, not just speculation
Start small - Even a modest allocation beats zero exposure, which is why I particularly like BullionVault, as you can buy as little as one gram at a time.
Diversify your approach - Mix physical holdings with mining stocks for leverage
Automate if possible - Regular purchases remove emotion from the equation and allow you to dollar cost average your exposure over time.
In a world of eroding fiat currencies, bond market chaos, and geopolitical instability, precious metals offer something critical: enduring value (and it doesn't melt in your hand!)
So, in many ways, the chocolate-vs-silver dilemma is more than just a meme.
It's really a litmus test for investor discipline and knowing what’s truly valuable in an increasingly chaotic world.
That’s all for this Thursday, folks. See you all on Sunday.
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Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com
