Happy Thursday, GoldBuzzers.

Wednesday's market action was nothing short of spectacular - both precious metals caught fire as the Fed's rate cut chorus grew louder and geopolitical tensions went from simmer to full boil. While Wall Street was busy fretting over AI valuations and tech earnings, investors continue to back up the truck on real assets.

In today’s Real Talk, I’ll be diving deep into something the mainstream financial press won't touch: why the 50-year price suppression game in precious metals might finally be coming to an explosive end. Trust me, you'll want to read every word of this one.

Ok, let's dive in.

While the Fed's been jawboning about rate cuts, the yellow metal blasted up to $4,340 an ounce on Wednesday, like a freight train through tissue paper - up a mind-blowing $1,760 gain over the past year.

Fed Governor Waller's telling anyone who'll listen that rates should be "50 to 100 basis points" lower from here, citing a labor market with minimal job growth and unemployment hitting 4.6% - its ugliest level since 2021.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical pressure cooker's about to blow: President Trump just ordered a "total and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers heading to Venezuela, backed by what he's calling the largest naval armada ever assembled in South American waters, while Putin's digging in his heels on Ukraine, threatening to take territory by force if necessary despite Trump's peace push.

And silver? Forget about it! The poor man's gold just went full rocket ship, surging almost 5%, above $66 per ounce to fresh all-time highs, up an absolutely bonkers 33% in a month and 128% year-to-date as industrial demand from solar panels, EVs, and data centers collides with a fifth consecutive year of supply deficit.

With the Fed looking increasingly dovish, geopolitical tensions hitting the redline, and both metals breaking out like escaped convicts, this market's telling us one thing loud and clear: those who can are running for the exits on paper assets and diving headfirst into real, tangible wealth.

Buckle up, friends - we're still getting started!

Today, I want to talk about something that the mainstream financial media has largely been ignoring.

For decades, precious metals enthusiasts have pointed to a suspicious pattern: gold and silver prices are getting capped despite surging physical demand, inflation running hot, and geopolitical chaos everywhere.

The mechanism? Massive short positions by big bullion banks on futures exchanges like COMEX and LBMA - often timed with perfectly convenient intraday "smacks" that shake out retail holders.

One of the most striking things I observed during my Theseus research project was that, in over 55 years of market action, the majority of gold and silver’s price rises occurred AFTER market hours. I couldn’t believe it when I first noticed it but the pattern was clear.

I found it particularly applied to gold, and to a lesser extent silver. Prices often rose steadily in overnight trading where Asian markets are most active, due to strong physical demand from major buyers like China, India, and central banks. This period (roughly London open through early U.S. session) accounted for the bulk of long-term gains.

However, during U.S. trading hours (COMEX active period, ~8:20 AM - 1:30 PM ET) prices frequently experienced sharp, short-lived drops ("dumps" of paper futures contracts) in thin liquidity windows, such as at the New York open or Friday mornings. These then got quickly absorbed, with prices recovering overnight.

Despite this phenomenon, I found the markets could still be traded very profitably with a systematic approach, but these strange patterns of price behaviour were unmistakable.

Critics have long called it manipulation. Regulators occasionally slapped banks with fines for spoofing. But the structure has endured.

Until now.

In the first four trading days of December alone, over 47.6 million ounces of silver were claimed for delivery from COMEX vaults. That's more than 60% of all registered inventory - the metal actually available for delivery - gone in less than a week.

Let that sink in.

COMEX vault inventories have now declined over 73% since 2020. London's LBMA is in similar straits - earlier this year, the free float collapsed so dramatically that lease rates spiked from near-zero to 39%. As I discussed a couple of months ago, backwardation - where spot prices exceed futures prices - has emerged for the first time in decades. That's the market screaming: "We need physical metal now, not paper promises for later."

Meanwhile, U.S. bullion banks have slashed their silver short positions dramatically - from hundreds of millions of ounces at peak to near-record lows. Five major U.S. banks reduced shorts by over 76 million ounces in recent months alone.

European banks? Not so lucky. They're still heavily exposed and, to put it bluntly, massively underwater as prices climb.

The old suppression playbook required two things to work: weak physical demand and unlimited paper selling to dictate price. Now, that formula is broken. Central banks are hoarding gold at record paces. Industrial silver demand - solar, EVs, AI data centers - is explosive and growing. And Asian buyers keep vacuuming up every ounce they can find.

This echoes the 1968 London Gold Pool collapse, when coordinated central bank selling finally buckled against real physical demand. Back then, the fix lasted years - until it didn't. When it broke, gold went from $35 to $850 over the following decade.

Today's dynamics are even more intense. Industrial users can't substitute away from silver - its unique conductivity makes it irreplaceable in green tech and defense applications.

The Silver Institute projects ongoing structural deficits, with consumption outstripping mine supply by hundreds of millions of ounces annually. And because silver is largely a by-product of base metal mining, higher prices don't magically boost output.

Is this the definitive end of price suppression? We can’t yet say that for certain. Shorts can still roll positions. Exchanges can hike margins to shake out speculators. Coordinated dumps still happen - we've seen overnight smashes get bought up within hours lately.

But each failed cap attempt diminishes credibility. And as inventories dwindle while industrial panic builds, the risk of a delivery failure or "force majeure" grows - potentially triggering the kind of violent repricing many have predicted for years.

For those of us who've been watching this story unfold, the takeaway is straightforward: physical metal matters more than paper claims. ETFs and futures provide exposure, but they carry real risk of decoupling during stress - redemptions could force cash settlements if vaults empty. Premiums on physical coins and bars are already widening. Dealers are reporting delays.

Whether triple-digit silver arrives in 2026 or later, the signals are getting much harder to ignore. The era of effortless price suppression may be drawing to a close - ushering in true price discovery driven by actual scarcity, not algorithms and paper games.

With silver's above-ground stocks tiny relative to surging demand, and gold reasserting its monetary role amid currency debasement fears, this move feels structural, not cyclical.

The paper dam is breaking against a physical flood.

That’s all for Thursday’s update, folks. I’ll see you on Sunday for the full round-up!

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Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com