Happy Thursday, GoldBuzzers and welcome back!

Hope you're sitting down for this one - silver just doubled in 2025. That's not a typo. Based on this week’s mailbag, I think it’s time to take another look at what’s really going on with silver.

Meanwhile, gold's hovering near six-week highs and the Fed's basically telegraphing rate cuts. Buckle up.

Ok, let's dive in.

Gold's sitting pretty around $4,220 - that's near six-week highs - and here's why everyone's buzzing: traders are practically guaranteeing the Fed cuts rates next week (90% odds!).

Recent US data indicated a modest slowdown in economic activity, with factories struggling for the ninth month straight. Plus, word on the street is Kevin Hassett might replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, which could mean even easier money ahead.

But holy moly, silver keeps stealing the show! We're talking $58 per ounce territory - up 100% year-to-date, marking the strongest performance since 1979. That's right, we haven't seen a year this wild for silver since the Hunt Brothers were making headlines.

Bloomberg data showed silver-backed ETFs added about 200 tons on Tuesday (that's a LOT of metal), while supplies in Shanghai are at their tightest in a decade.

Bottom line: With jobs data today and inflation numbers due Friday, buckle up for a wild ride into next week's Fed meeting. The gold-silver ratio falling to the low 70s tells us silver's still the speed demon of this precious metals rally. Both metals are on fire, but silver's absolutely scorching! 🔥

Silver's up 100% this year - and the fundamentals suggest we're just getting started. Let’s take a deeper look.

While gold has notched impressive 60% gains year-to-date, silver has surged over 100% in 2025 alone. The gold-silver ratio has compressed from near 100 earlier this year to around 74:1, signaling that institutional money is rotating hard into silver's asymmetric upside.

Unlike gold's steadier climb, silver's dual identity - part monetary metal, part industrial workhorse - amplifies both its volatility and its rewards.

The Supply Crisis

But what makes this rally different from speculative froth is that we're in the midst of a profound structural supply crisis. It’s vital to understand this.

According to the Silver Institute's January 2025 forecast, the silver market is headed for its fifth consecutive year of deficit in 2025. The World Silver Survey 2025 projects industrial fabrication will surpass 700 million ounces for the first time, with cumulative deficits from 2021-2025 approaching 820 million ounces.

That's 10 months of global mine production just... gone.

Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have plummeted to their lowest levels since 2015, while ETF inflows continue accelerating. The noose is tightening.

The Green Energy Catalyst

Industrial demand is the engine here, and it's not slowing down. Photovoltaics now account for roughly 19% of global silver consumption, with solar panels devouring around 232 million ounces in 2024 alone - a 96% surge from 2022 levels.

New TOPCon solar technology requires 50% more silver per panel than legacy designs. As the world races toward renewable capacity targets, silver consumption is accelerating faster than supply can respond. EVs add another demand layer - using roughly 50% more silver than conventional vehicles.

Meanwhile, mining output has flatlined. Global mine production hasn't meaningfully increased in a decade, and 70% of silver comes as a byproduct of other metal mining - meaning there's limited ability to ramp production even at higher prices.

The Macro Tailwinds

Layer the fundamentals onto the macro backdrop, and silver's case only strengthens.

U.S. government debt continues spiraling, with fiscal year 2025 deficits north of $1.8 trillion. The Fed is cutting rates - markets now price an 87% probability of another quarter-point cut at the December meeting. Real rates are falling, the dollar is weakening, and central banks worldwide continue hoarding gold at 1,000+ tonnes annually.

Silver catches the spillover as the cheaper alternative for portfolio hedging. When faith in fiat erodes, hard assets benefit - and silver offers more leverage to that trade than gold.

The Investment Case

This positions silver as perhaps the last true bargain in precious metals, with future targets becoming very possible in the $100-$150 range as I predicted in The Gold Awakening, as ratios normalize toward historical averages of 40-50:1. While gold is the safe, steady diversifier, silver offers explosive leverage for those betting on widening economic cracks.

For GoldBuzz readers considering exposure: physical bars or coins offer direct ownership with no counterparty risk - consider sovereign coins like American Eagles or Canadian Maple Leafs for maximum liquidity. I’m planning to release a full buyers guide in the coming weeks but it takes a while to test each of the options.

ETFs like SLV provide trading flexibility. And miners offer amplified upside - though with higher risk attached. Consider SIL, SILJ and other silver mining alternatives.

The supply deficit is real and structural. Industrial demand isn't going away - it's accelerating. And mine supply remains stubbornly inelastic.

In a world of deficits and debasement, silver isn't just an investment - if you’re prepared to be patient and ride out the inevitable downturns, it's insurance with rocket fuel.

Data sources: Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2025, Trading Economics, CME Group

That’s all for Thursday, folks. I’ll see you on Sunday morning!

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Rick Adams
Founder, GoldBuzz
rick@goldbuzz.com